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Old 08-12-2019, 09:59 PM   #731
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Default 2019 1st Half Sales Totals

2019 first half Class B market data are out. These are cumulative figures and represent the first six months of 2019.

SSI: 2019 Class B sales (registrations) up 5.9%
https://rvbusiness.com/ssi-class-b-s...st-six-months/

RVIA: 2019 Class B wholesale shipments down 40.2% to 1799 units:
https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...ents-june-2019

These represent Year-over-Year differences between 2018 and 2019 first half and clearly show the impact of Roadtrek / Erwin Hymer's North American demise on wholesale production. However actual retail sales and registrations have tapered off more slowly and actually grew slightly versus 2018.

Market share breakdown for first half 2019 according to SSI was:

Winnebago Industries Inc. 40.5% market share.
Erwin Hymer Group North America 23.8% market share.
Forest River Inc. 13.9% market share.

Coachmen (Forest River) continues to make strong sales gains into the Class B market, having pushed Thor Industries (Airstream) out of third place for most of 2019. With Thor introducing their Sequence van into the lower price segment of the Class B market this could be an interesting race for the second half of 2019.
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Old 08-13-2019, 12:14 PM   #732
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Registrations up 5.7% and wholesale shipments down 40.2%? I'm not sure how to interpret that other than unsold inventory left over from 2018.

There are several articles out there blaming it on tariffs to a coming recession. Baby Boomers entering the market hasn't run out yet and there is a lot of #vanlife activity that isn't reported (I think) in these figures. Demise of Roadtrek may play a part in it but I would think people would just shop elsewhere. The slowness of delivery of Mercedes Benz Sprinters may have an impact, but still the whole RV industry is down 20.3% and Class B is but a blip. In the Great Recession 12 or so years ago RV sales were one of the canaries in the cage before it officially happened. That's ominous.

I like changing lifestyles and interest better like hunting and fishing is down than a recession. That would ease up on campground availability for the rest of us RVers.
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Old 08-13-2019, 01:28 PM   #733
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" I'm not sure how to interpret that other than unsold inventory left over from 2018. "

Its six months of data in a seasonal industry. There may well be a normal delay in the pipeline where a lot more units are shipped than sold the first six months of the year. The units sold are likely almost all going to have been shipped the previous year. Shipments are down because Roadtrek isn't shipping units. Winter sales aren't down because there are still winter customers buying. Although I would think winter sales are a small part of the overall business, so that might not tell you much about the health of the industry.
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Old 08-13-2019, 05:15 PM   #734
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From the link in post 724
New (not used) EHGNA units on RV trader:

May 13: 371
June 2: 332
Aug 13: 260

It's not precise info for sure but gives an idea of the pace of sales from that one site. Likely many more months of EHGNA unit sales still to come.
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Old 08-13-2019, 05:24 PM   #735
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The health of the industry is reflected in all the RV types. All down.

The numbers are in direct comparison with the first 6 months of 2018 which would be by your reasoning a wash. If it is a seasonal industry, the season to buy was in late winter and spring when they had to RV shows and interest to get started RVing. There are no rosey numbers or an adjustment or an explanation to believe otherwise, IMO. Roadtrek maybe could have accounted for half the -40.2% of Class Bs which would put it only in line with the industry -20.3%. At this point...unhealthy.
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Old 08-29-2019, 09:46 PM   #736
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Another Canary?

https://www.businessinsider.com/truc...tential-2019-8

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