Class B Market Share, Sales and Shipments

[booster]

It may just be we are seeing the often predicted shift from the focus on high end, high margin units, to better value units, by the buying public.

If this trend continues too much longer, the rest of the manufacturers are either going do something to compete on the value end of the market, or continue to fight over a dwindling high end.

It could make for some new models of vans, and business models.

[gerrym51]

i know because i am a roadtrek fan this might be questioned but-

winnebago is a much bigger company than roadtrek. roadtrek could never compete on the real low end with them even if they wanted to.also they can't compete with Thor.

the only real way for roadtrek to compete is higher end-feature differentiated unique models.

when roadtrek had no competitors they had a very large market share.

sort of when general motors ruled 30 years ago . things change.

i would not be surprised if from now on winnegago rules the highest percent always. as long as the ERA and Travato's sold at out the door pricing cheap they will rule.

[booster]

No argument or questioning here, it will be tough for anyone to compete with Winnebago on price. Economy of scale, and a different mindset both contribute to the issue, I would think.

The auto manufacturers figured out a long time ago that they had to accept lower margins on the economy versions of their vehicles, basically accepting that they would look at the low margins as an investment in building market share and later on move up customers. I think the old line builders like Roadtrek are still trying to get their big margins on all the units, even if the development costs for them are long amortized, and they are uncompetitive.

When a Chevy 190 has a MSRP of nearly $110K, and in 2007 they were $77K, you know things are a bit off kilter.

[Jostalli]

Originally Posted by gerrym51

i know because i am a roadtrek fan this might be questioned but-

winnebago is a much bigger company than roadtrek. roadtrek could never compete on the real low end with them even if they wanted to.also they can't compete with Thor.

the only real way for roadtrek to compete is higher end-feature differentiated unique models.

when roadtrek had no competitors they had a very large market share.

sort of when general motors ruled 30 years ago . things change.

i would not be surprised if from now on winnegago rules the highest percent always. as long as the ERA and Travato's sold at out the door pricing cheap they will rule.

You got it right. Roadtrek had a large market share because they had no competitors. Now they are getting beat because they simply do not produce higher quality vans compared to the competition. A few weeks ago I went to a large Roadtrek dealer to get ideas for my conversion and was literally cringing when I analyzed the fit and finishing in each model. The only way they can compete is with new tech and that advantage is short lived.

Roadtrek will only continue losing market share.

[wincrasher]

Some seem to think all B owners are rich retirees. I just don't see that as the case. Providing value always wins.

[gerrym51]

Originally Posted by booster

No argument or questioning here, it will be tough for anyone to compete with Winnebago on price. Economy of scale, and a different mindset both contribute to the issue, I would think.

The auto manufacturers figured out a long time ago that they had to accept lower margins on the economy versions of their vehicles, basically accepting that they would look at the low margins as an investment in building market share and later on move up customers. I think the old line builders like Roadtrek are still trying to get their big margins on all the units, even if the development costs for them are long amortized, and they are uncompetitive.

When a Chevy 190 has a MSRP of nearly $110K, and in 2007 they were $77K, you know things are a bit off kilter.

one other thing is of course Canada. and it's not only the Dollar. healthcare may be provided by government but compamies pay the bills. th e difference is that canadian companies give the money directly to the government. they do not necessarily have lower costs

[avanti]

Yes. It is so frustrating that upfitters like Roadtrek and Airstream can't seem to get their quality control up to modern standards. Both brands have so much going for them, but when we were shopping 18 months ago, it took about 5 minutes to reject each of them on the basis of shoddy craftsmanship. It is hard to understand--it just isn't that hard properly crimp a cable, to align panels, or to neatly apply sealant. One would think that a competent management team could mop up the problems in no time and at little cost if they cared to do so. Do they really think that this wouldn't be cost effective?

[wincrasher]

Originally Posted by avanti

Yes. It is so frustrating that upfitters like Roadtrek and Airstream can't seem to get their quality control up to modern standards. Both brands have so much going for them, but when we were shopping 18 months ago, it took about 5 minutes to reject each of them on the basis of shoddy craftsmanship. It is hard to understand--it just isn't that hard properly crimp a cable, to align panels, or to neatly apply sealant. One would think that a competent management team could mop up the problems in no time and at little cost if they cared to do so. Do they really think that this wouldn't be cost effective?

I think they are caught between defending their lofty prices and getting units out the door. Both are running flat out these days.

[Davydd]

I think they will all tell you it is hard to get quality workers and if you don't have quality management it can be all the harder.

Technical manual labor jobs requiring knowledge such as needed to build essentially a custom RV requiring a lot of decision making on quality go begging.

[obgraham]

Here's my take on RT, and likely many will disagree: A tour of their facility was eye opening. Essentially a single team puts each rig together. Contrast that with, say, Newmar, where workers specialize in doing their part of the job, and the rig moves through the line somewhat like it might at a major auto builder.

And the difference between the 2 factories is huge: RT is a noisy, dusty place that I doubt would pass OSHA regs in the US. Newmar is relatively quiet, spotless, and with workers who obviously are proud of their work.

Two different approaches to production, each of which seems to work for the people involved. But I marvel at the finish quality of RT, considering the controlled chaos of their plant.

[Davydd]

Are you wondering where the other 4.5% of Class Bs are and one guys opinion of why the surge in sales? Here is one take in Let's RV.

Class B motorhomes capture attention of downsizes and new buyers

The author highlights Advanced RV in appealing to Class A downsizers who still want that top end luxury. Many of the Advanced RV buyers I've met have been downsizers and first time buyers. As a previous Class B owner I am probably in the minority.

[wincrasher]

Too bad there is no data to really support the idea that the increase is due to luxury buyers. I'd argue that Winnebago's leap forward is due to a more cost conscious demographic - either first timers in their Travato line, or just the value conscious in their Era line.

It looks like Roadtrek is betting the farm on the luxury argument - all their new tech is going to push up, or prop up, their higher price tags.

I'd consider Advanced RV as a boutique player on the ultra high end of the market - not enough sales to move any of the needles.

So we'll see.

[Davydd]

The author did point out Advanced RV was hidden in the unreported 4.5%. True, it is not moving the needle but it is pushing the envelope despite what Roadtrek likes to claim. Advanced RV has had its ecoOasis model for two years and now Roadtrek has an EcoTrek and Pleasure-way has an Eco-Ion. You don't think there wasn't some influence there?

The article was on downsizers and first time buyers. Winnebago surged most likely with the Travato but the ERA has contributed as much. It could be the ERA is as much responsible as it takes a good bite out of Sprinter Roadtreks I think.

[markopolo]

The Class B marketplace is on track to surpass 2007 levels .........

http://www.classbforum.com/forums/f9...html#post14719

It has been a long recovery for Class B's.

I'll try to find and update that spreadsheet.

Booster previously pointed out that C's & A's recovered faster:

http://www.classbforum.com/forums/f9...html#post14719

[gerrym51]

i think they all are increasing unit sales. However the biggest increase is the Travato.

[markopolo]

I used publicly available RVIA year end shipment numbers for the chart. No guaranty of accuracy. I think it gives us an idea of what's happening.

Class B Shipments 2004 to 2014.JPG

About 80 more Class B's shipped through May if comparing YTD May numbers for 2014 and 2015.

2015 is on track to be better than 2007.

[avanti]

Originally Posted by markopolo

I used publicly available RVIA year end shipment numbers for the chart. No guaranty of accuracy. I think it gives us an idea of what's happening.

US unemployment rate (Bureau of Labor Statistics).



Just sayin'.

[booster]

Originally Posted by markopolo

I used publicly available RVIA year end shipment numbers for the chart. No guaranty of accuracy. I think it gives us an idea of what's happening.

Attachment 2694

About 80 more Class B's shipped through May if comparing YTD May numbers for 2014 and 2015.

2015 is on track to be better than 2007.

Depending on the accuracy, it does appear that the increase was starting to level off in 2013 until it took of big time.

That take off also corresponds pretty closely with Winnebago heading up the market share, IIRC. To me that would not indicate move down to B big rig folks, but the fact that more budget conscious models finally showed up in a world that was running helter skelter to the high end.

[Davydd]

Another skew of the numbers positive for those still selling Bs is Leisure Travel Vans supposedly and temporarily leaving the B market and Great West Vans woes. The pie pieces got fewer. Even the 4.5% categorier, Advanced RV, is more than doubling its production over last year. Cheaper gas as we have had this past year works against B desireship. Basically, the B market has held its own. When you are still less than 7% of the total motorhome market you are still a niche business appealing to few. Size still matters with most, especially rookies in the RV market.

[wincrasher]

I wonder what the purchase data shows - if I were to bet, I'd say that the percentage of B's bought in 2007 with home equity loans was large. I'd bet that today, with these high numbers, that the majority are bought with cash. That would be a very healthy move as far a sustainable market goes.